The Philadelphia Phillies will not win the World Series in 2011, because the club’s closer is average, at best.

Injuries and an inconsistent offense will not prevent the Phillies from winning the championship this year.  The addition of Hunter Pence and the newfound, consistent productivity of John Mayberry, Jr. will compensate for the overall reduction in Phils’ home runs this season.  Moreover, Carlos Ruiz’s bat, which is quiet for most of the season, tends to heat up for games in late August and beyond.  Thus, the team’s offense is sufficient.

Obviously, the starting pitching is not a concern.  Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee are filthy, capable of pitching 7+ innings in the postseason.  So long as Hamels returns to form after his two missed starts, and Roy Oswalt continues to improve, since coming off of the Disabled List, the arms, which start the game, are of no worries.

Despite the success of the starting pitching, it is unrealistic to hope that they pitch a complete game in most postseason games.  A championship club must have an above-average closer.  The Phillies do not.  Stutes and Bastardo are good 7th/8th inning guys.  However, both pitchers currently walk too many batters to serve as an everyday closer.  Neither has pitched in the postseason, where most games are close, and the mistakes are magnified.  Brad Lidge has not shown consistent stuff, such that the Phils can rely on him to close out a tight game.  His fastball has lost velocity.  His slider is still a good pitch but is only effective when he locates the fastball.  Lidge has been too erratic with his fastball for the club to trust him in the ninth inning of a one-run game in October.  That leaves Ryan Madson.

Ryan Madson is an average closer with solid numbers for the season.  He has 23 saves in 25 opportunities with an ERA of 3.25.  He has been in MLB for a handful of years- sometimes as a middle reliever, sometimes as a closer.  Never has he been anything more than a nice relief pitcher.  His stuff is ok-good, but certainly not great. A championship team must have a better than “ok-good” closer.  History supports this argument.

The previous four World Series-winning teams have had awesome closers- Brian Wilson [SF], Mariano Rivera [NYY], Brad Lidge [PHI], and Jonathan Papelbon [BOS].  Looking back to 2000, only three times in the last eleven years has the MLB champion used an average closer- [2006 Cardinals, 2003 Marlins, and 2000 D-backs].

Baseball history shows that the champion must be well-rounded, possessing clutch hitting, good starting pitching, and a stud closer.  This season, the Phillies lack the final component of a champion.  The winner, though I freaking hate to say it, will be the Boston Red Sox.  The starting pitching of the Red Sox does not compare to that of the Phillies.  However, their lineup is stacked, the ‘pen is solid, and the closer is money.

I hope that I am completely wrong; that the Phillies win the World Series; and that Ryan Madson successfully closes out every game.